HELENA — National political forecasters say Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy is now narrowly favored over Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, in a race that could determine which party controls the Senate next year.
On Thursday, the Cook Political Report announced it was shifting its rating for Montana’s Senate race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”
The newsletter Inside Elections updated its rating to “Tilt Republican” later that day. Last week, the Crystal Ball, from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, also declared the race “Leans Republican.”
These decisions come after several recently released polls showed Sheehy with a mid-single-digit lead over Tester – most recently a poll sponsored by AARP Montana.
Forecasters said in justifying their decisions that the race is not over and Tester has survived tough elections before, but that a decline in ticket-splitting is making it harder for incumbents like him to outperform their states’ partisan lean.
“Montana Sen. Jon Tester has been a political unicorn for nearly two decades, but in a presidential year with an even more polarized electorate, he is now the underdog heading into the final stretch of the race to his Republican opponent,” wrote Jessica Taylor for the Cook Political Report.
“Beyond the polling, history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side, as we have mentioned previously,” wrote Kyle Kondik for the Crystal Ball. “He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election. Many of Tester’s red-state Democratic colleagues have lost or retired in recent years, and it is a credit to his abilities that he has won 3 Senate elections in a state that is otherwise clearly Republican.”
If Sheehy does defeat Tester, Republicans will be overwhelmingly favored to take control of the Senate, as they need to pick up two seats to win a majority and are expected to win Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s open seat in West Virginia.
Democrats would need to upset a Republican incumbent and keep the presidency to hold on to control in a 50-50 Senate.
